A conversational model of causal explanation

Es wird ein Konversationsmodell der kausalen Erklärung vorgestellt, das existierende Modelle der kausalen Erklärung integriert und konsistent mit allgemeinen Modellen von Gesprächsanalysen ist. Fundamentale Fragen über die Faktoren der Erklärung wie Wahrscheinlichkeit und Relevanz werden diskutiert. Ferner werden Erklärungsmuster im Bereich des umgangssprachlichen Gesprächs behandelt. (psz)'A conversational model of causal explanation is outlined, which emphasises the role of counterfactual reasoning, contrast cases and conversational constraints in causal explanation. It is used to organise existing models of causal attributions, to integrate attribution research with other models of causal reasoning, and to study explanations in ordinary language.' (author's abstract

Conversational inference and rational judgment

Rationale Interpretationen von Aussagen und Gesprächen beruhen auf der Annahme, daß der Zuhörer sich eine Hypothese über die Intentionen des Sprechers bildet. Es wird ein Modell für die Konversationsanalyse vorgestellt, mit dessen Hilfe gezeigt wird, daß diese Interpretationen bestimmt werden durch die Attribute, die der Sprecher dem Zuhörer zuschreibt. Das Modell wird auf die Analyse von Experimenten der kognitiven Psychologie und Sozialpsychologie angewendet, wobei sich zeigt, daß die experimentelle Anordnung und die Gesprächseigenschaften die Schlußfolgerungen von Untersuchungspersonen beeinflussen können. (psz)'Conversational inference is inductive in nature, requiring the listener to go beyond the information explicitly given in a mesage. This requirement runs counter to the assumption that rational subjects should only operate on the information explicitly given in judgment tasks. Rational interpretations of messages are guided by hearers' hypotheses about the speaker's intended meaning. An attributional model of conversational inference is presented which shows how these interpretations are governed by conversational assumptions, which in turn are governed by the attributions the speaker makes about the hearer. The model is then applied to the analysis of experiments on reasoning processes in cognitive psychology, developmental psychology, social psychology and decision research. It is shown that the conversational model can predict how experimental manipulations of relevant source and message attributes affect subjects' judgments. In conclusion, failure to recognize the role of conversational assumptions in governing inference processes can lead rational responses to be misclassified, and misattributed to cognitive shortcomings.' (author's abstract

Psychological Traits and Trading Strategies

This paper analyzes experimentally if psychological traits and cognitive biases affect trading behaviour and performance. Based on the answers of 67 subjects to a psychological questionnaire we measured their degree of overconfidence, impulsiveness and self-monitoring, and their availability, representativeness and confirmation biases. The 67 subjects also participated in an experimental financial market, in the spirit of Plott and Sunder (1988). We find that impulsive subjects tend to place more orders but do not incur larger losses. We also find that overconfident subjects and subjects prone to the confirmation and representativeness biases have a greater tendency to place unprofitable orders. This negative impact of cognitive biases on trading performance is sronger when subjects have acquired some experience of the game. This suggests that biased subjects engage in improper learning.

Base-rates, representativeness, and the logic of conversation

Die Studie befaßt sich mit dem Unterschied zwischen dem sozialen Alltagsgespräch und der experimentellen Befragungssituation. Es wird angenommen, daß das Alltagsgespräch nach bestimmten Prinzipien ('co-operative' and 'relevance' principles) abläuft, die für beide Gesprächspartner in verbindlicher Weise einen relevanten, wahrheitsgetreuen und gehaltvollen Informationsaustausch garantieren. Diese Prinzipien werden im experimentellen Gespräch durch den Forscher verletzt. Zwei Experimente, die mit 44 Studenten an der Universität Heidelberg und 48 Studenten der University of Illinois durchgeführt wurden, sollten beweisen, daß Versuchspersonen, denen weder informative noch relevante Inhalte vermittelt wurden, sich bei ihrem Antwortverhalten von den durch Psychologen vermittelten persönlichen Informationen und nicht von statistischen Informationen leiten ließen, selbst wenn die statistischen Daten einen höheren diagnostischen Wert besaßen. Dies entspricht ganz den Regeln der sozialen Gesprächsführung (denn nur Psychologen, nicht Computer vermögen sich den Konversationsregeln anzupassen) und kann nur in der Weise interpretiert werden, daß Versuchspersonen der ihnen dargebotenen Information eine Relevanz aus dem sozialen Kontext der Situation heraus zuordnen. (ML)'According to the co-operative principle of social discourse, listeners expect speakers to be relevant, truthful, and informative. The apparent overreliance of individuals on non-diagnostic person information at the expense of base-rate information is shown to be, in part, due to the violation of this principle in experiments on judgmental biases. In these experiments, subjects are presented information that is neither informative nor relevant, in a communicative context that suggests otherwise. Accordingly, subjects relied more on individuating personality information and less on base-rate information when the personality information was presented by a psychologist rather than compiled by a computer, presumably because a human communicator but not a computer is supposed to conform to conversational norms. Moreover, subjects relied more on individuating information when the framing of the task implied that psychologists provided correct estimates than when it implied that statisticians provided correct estimates; and when the individuating rather than the base-rate information was varied as a within subjects factor.' (author's abstract

The Impact of Environmental Recall and Carbon Taxation on the Carbon Footprint of Supermarket Shopping

This study uses an incentive-compatible experimental online supermarket to assess whether prior environmentally-friendly behaviour outside the store and carbon taxes motivate sustainable consumption. Previous research suggests that past decisions may influence current decisions because consumers compensate morally desirable and undesirable acts over time, and carbon taxes have been promoted as effective tools to reduce the carbon footprint of food baskets. After controlling for past consumption, results show that being required to recall past environmentally-friendly behaviour before shopping led consumers to purchase more sustainable food baskets. Carbon taxation also strongly reduces the carbon footprint of food baskets, showing no interaction with the task of recalling past behaviours